How long do you think the quarantine measures will last per country?

Question

As many of the countries steadily more affected by the COVID pandemic enact social distancing and quarantine measures, there have been varied claims about how long these will last. I've heard estimates ranging from a couple weeks to months.What this makes me ask is: first, for those of you who comment here and can make a better educated guess than some others, what strikes you as a plausible scenario in the following weeks? Secondly, how can they be on the shorter end of that if the virus is still active and still without a vaccine or treatment. As soon as quarantines get ignored or lifted again, wouldn't new infections simply retake their previous surge, causing new saturations?

mathdev · Accepted Answer

Took Hubei nearly two months with a complete shutdown. The West cannot do anything remotely close to a complete shutdown due to different social order and there being multiple loci of infection. Therefore, the measures will be exponentially less effective. So the lockdown will be indefinite - multiple years at least.Unless we let a small number of old people die of natural causes, we are basically switching to a totalitarian system.

redhale · Answer

This [1] was the most sobering article I've read on this question. I really hope it is too pessimistic.[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandem...

CM30 · Answer

Depends on the country and what they're doing right now, as well as how far the situation has come there. I think it's probably going to peak in places like Italy soon enough, likely within the next month or two. In places where it hasn't peaked yet or not much was done to contain it (like the US), I can see it lasting about twice that time, maybe three times as long.Either way, it'll likely be about July/August before things have started to calm down worldwide, and a bit later before things have completely returned to normal.

krueger71 · Answer

As individuals we need some reliable way to know if we are immune and not contagious. We probably also need some way to prove this to others. People who have this status should be able to operate normally together with others and keep things running during a long lock-down. It wouldn't make sense to keep people locked inside if they can't catch or transmit the disease.

nicholas73 · Answer

The bare minimum we can do is quarantine for a month until warmer weather arrives. Then we can see if that has an effect.

keiferski · Answer

Zero chance that this full lockdown goes on for more than a month or two at the most. The economies of the US and EU would be entirely destroyed and we'd be in the Second Great Depression.
We're likely looking at a slow rollback of the quarantine over the next six months. Expect a dramatic increase in medical personnel and supplies, temperature testing in public, especially for entry to structures like malls and subway stations, continued quarantine of at-risk populations, postponement of large gatherings, and a rollout of experimental vaccines and treatments.
For the "second wave" in Fall/Winter, the plan will be to have massive medical resources ready to handle a surge incoming cases. After the current economic situation, I wouldn't expect another shut-down.

AnimalMuppet · Answer

Related question: In the US, are we going to see domestic travel restrictions? If so, how soon? And for how long?

raarts · Answer

For a great overview and analysis of all countries, which ones did better and why: https://link.medium.com/bS1mllol14(also read the followup)

DanBC · Answer

Measures will be in place until at least August.

zzo38computer · Answer

Some people told me from two to eight weeks, but I don't know. I live in British Columbia, so would want to know what to do in British Columbia.

kozak · Answer

Year to year and a half, until vaccine arrives?