Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

81% of cases are mild. Most (younger) people are unlikely to develop severe or critical symptoms. However, it affects people more the older they are, and people should still be wary of the virus and practice safe hygiene - wash hands regularly with soap, use hand sanitiser, don't touch your face, sneeze and cough into a tissue or your upper arm, and isolate yourself at home if you're sick. Asymptomatic people can still carry the virus and pass it onto people who can be severely affected.

So people are unperturbed because it's unlikely to be serious for them, but they should worry about the effect it will have on the population at large.

We have not seen the impact of the virus and most people do not have a sense of how fast it can spread.

We have not seen the impact it has on hospitals. People will start to get scared once they see the hospitals getting full and the care workers starting to burnout, given the 10+% hospitalization rate. Unfortunately by that time most of us will be forced to stay home.

Look at what is happening in Italy. Only after they were forced to stay home have they finally taken the situation seriously.

The CDC has said that most of us will eventually get it. We just hope we don't all get it so fast that the hospital system is overwhelmed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

News fatigue probably. I no longer take news seriously. I know they are trying to make me worry, that's how they make money. Whatever they say is probably grossly exaggerated.

Someday it'll be like in "the boy who cried wolf", but what can I do.

Because worry is not actionable. Worrying does not achieve anything.

The actions one can take with regards to SARS-CoV-2 are limited. One can avoid being in crowded places close to others when possible, and practice careful hygiene. A minority can work from home. Americans can avoid public transit, but most urban dwellers outside the USA cannot.

I think it has a balanced chance of being overestimated or underestimated. The psychology side of me recognizes the human tendency to end up in an echo chamber(twitter, HN, etc), but the other side of me wonders if this time is really different.

Only time will tell. The only thing I am certain of is that traditional news and even twitter to a certain extent has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes, long before coronavirus was a thing. One of the few industries that will absolutely win during the next few weeks and months is news, so yeah, they don’t have the best incentives to calm people’s fears.

It's because they're still in the denial stage. The panic stage will follow very shortly. It's just a matter of social contagion.

See also:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/four-thing...

I don't know about the people you're talking about, but I've been accused of insufficient concern about it myself. I don't agree with that accusation.

I am not panicking or obsessing about it, though, and I think people perceive that as being unconcerned. But it's not. I take it seriously, and engage in reasonable protective behaviors, but I am not afraid. Why? In part because there is little reason for me to be actively afraid (yet), and in part because fear is unhelpful and counterproductive.

Could this be a "black swan" event? Sure, it could. But we're not there yet, and losing sleep over it won't change the likelihood of it becoming that.

That said, what I see coming out of the US government, and particularly Trump's statements, make it much more difficult to remain calm.

Well, in my case, I was actually more worried in early February, when I did not believe that authorities in Austin, TX where I live, would take it seriously. However, they have in fact cancelled the SXSW music festival, so that we don't have thousands of people flying in from all over, mixing their air in planes, then spreading out throughout the city to breathe each other's air in packed venues.

So in this case, the fact that the authorities are starting to panic a bit, is reassuring to me.

Also, aside from not going out to big events myself, it's not like there's much I can do. It's not "quit your job and head to the hills and live off the land" time, yet, and other than washing my hands, not going to music festivals, etc. there's not a lot I can do.

https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ Is one of the best resources I’ve found and should answer most of your questions.

Not everyone has an appreciation of exponential growth. Or the proper fear of it.

I think it has largely to do with people not understanding the power of exponential growth.[0] It doesn't help that the U.S. President ambiguously referred to the coronavirus as "the new hoax".[1] Nor does it help, in my mind, for the U.S. President, Surgeon General, and countless public health officials to compare the current deaths due to COVID-19 to flu deaths.[2]

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavir...

[1] https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-and-the-new-hoax/

[2] Check their official twitter accounts, press conferences, etc.

I found this so baffling that the best I can say is I don't know, and I've found no explanation satisfactory. "Denial" doesn't cut it, it's mass delusion. The first Chinese quarantine was a giant red flag that nearly everyone ignored.

This is my personal opinion and I could be 100% wrong. But I think this is no worse than crazy cow disease or Zika virus or SARS.

Media, as always, cares about clicks and will publish sensational articles. In China the virus has peaked and the president of China declared victory over the virus today. We are 2-4 weeks behind China.

It is estimated the virus will peak in 2 weeks from now. So next 2 weeks get ready for catastrophic headlines. Then eventually daily new reported cases in Italy etc will start dropping and panic will be over.

I think I have contracted the Coronavirus but since I am a healthy 31 years old person I have fought it off and defeated it.

Media fatigue/cynicism. In the past 10 years, we've had apocalyptic scenarios about anti-vax, Trump, Brexit, IS, trade war, property crisis, recession, climate change, US government shutdowns. Before that, there was cigarettes, obesity, food industry, big pharma, nuclear war, 9/11. We've also had Zika, SARS, MERS, Ebola.

I have no idea how scary this is because the media cries wolf all the time. Everyone cries wolf but life still goes on. So when something actually bad does happen, everyone's been desensitized to it. It's even worse today now that newsjacking is a thing.

One good resource from scientists with a "measured" opinion : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQdMHv026R0&t=637s

Interesting.

I would ask you this:

1. Which part of the world you hail from 2. The people you talk to..are they mathematically challenged or immersed in the world of numbers(doesnt necessarily have to be tech/IT)

Consider what the media stands to gain from all this frenzy. You think they want people calm or reading/watching/consooming as much as possible all hours of the day?

Use your judgement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

I coach youth sports and the forums are filled with angry people as high schools and colleges cancel some spring seasons.

How is getting perturbed going to help?

Would it help?

Rudolf Abel, Bridge of Spies (2015)

I think the reasons are:

1. In most places, the absolute numbers are still very low. If you look at it like "X in a million", X is still low, so it feels like there is no need to panic.

2. Continuing the above, if you compare X to something else, like "getting hit by a car" or something similar, it feels rational to not worry about Corona too much, since you're also not worrying about other things (you're used to the risks).

3. People like Trump are comparing it to the flu.

4. For most healthy, non-smoking people under 50, the risks are relatively low based on the data. Kids seem to be pretty safe from it.

5. Based on official numbers it's contained in China: more people are coming out of the disease than going in, the net number is negative, active cases is declining. [2]

However, 1. + 2. above are only re-assuring if you use the "independent events" mental model, which everyone defaults to. Eg. if you get hit by a car or you get cancer, that doesn't increase my chances. So if the probabilities are low (X in a million), and you and me getting it is independent and the probability is not increasing, then the mental model works, and it's reasonable not to worry. But this mental model is wrong here, because this is viral growth. It's spreading exponentially outside China [1]. So you getting it increases my chances of getting [eventually]. We are not indenependent. It's like the flu in this sense, but it spreads more efficicently and kills more people, so 3. above is also a wrong.

On point 4 above, let's hope this is the case. But, everyone has older/sick relatives..

On point 5 above, it'll be interesting to see how liberal democracies respond, whether they can pull the aggressive measures like curfewing the population that China did. Also, China has a lot of economic resources, not sure how smaller/weaker economies will hold up.

In conclusion, I don't think most people realize that for the next ~3 months (imo for a lot more time), their lifestyles will be drastically different. Until now we were in "1st world yolo" mode, now it'll be: no going to work, no schools, no travel, no socializing, no gym, no events.. A lot of the things we work for, live for, will be put on hold. See China, Italy.

[1] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/, look for "total cases outside of china", it's a beautiful exponential, the kind that startuppers would kill for... "viral growth"

[2] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/, look for "active cases in china"

Try telling people many if not most large organizations and elite politicians are corrupt.

They can't handle reality. Cattle, to be cliché.

I looked at reported mortality rates and infection rates. Looks just like the regular flu so far. Do you have some data that indicates otherwise?