Most convincing evidence that a US economic recession is coming in 2020?

One is unlikely to outthink Bloomgberg’s recession index, especially since recessions are usually the result of collective loss of confidence: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tra...

A recession will come, but who knows if it will be in 2020.

There are plenty of things to be concerned about, such as [0], but the existence of explosives does not imply an explosion is imminent. There needs to be a spark in the right place. Tectonic plates interacting means there will be seismic activity, but when and of what magnitude? Such questions are impossible to answer with any detail and certainty.

[0] https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/different-acronyms-same-di...