How fast do you think EV's will be adopted?

Question

The use of electric automobiles is increasing, but there is a lot of disagreement about how fast it is going to happen in the future.At one end are people who think there is a tipping point coming pretty soon, and by 2030 EV's will be the majority produced. At the other end are those who think adoption is going to be very slow, and in 2030 ICE's will still be the great majority produced, and that will continue for many decades. And there are various views in between.So what is your prediction as to what proportion of autos produced in 2030 will be EV's? And what is your reasoning?

11thEarlOfMar · Accepted Answer

I have a 40 minute Silicon Valley commute. A year ago, I casually counted 25 Tesla Model 3s. A month ago, 75.
If there were no Tesla, and the majors took VWs approach, I'd say it's multiple decades for EVs to overtake ICE units on the road. Tesla confounded the EV pundits by making not just the fastest and safest EVs, but the fastest and safest cars, period. They set the bar very high for the majors and in doing so will accelerate the transition.
In all seriousness, I recommend that you spend a few days driving a Tesla, any model, before making predictions about the future of EVs.