What happens after no-deal Brexit?

I think if it even happens (several people I know still don't believe it will), it will in the long term lead to the dissolution of the Union. The position of Scotland is pretty clear here, and I can't see that the status quo will remain in Northern Ireland either. Personally as a British citizen I would not be disappointed to see a united Ireland in my lifetime - Brexit was a good chance to read up on all the history, and I do not believe NI should be ruled from London.

I don't think there will be quite as much chaos and doom as some people predict, but the ports situation will definitely be bad (if you listen to the transport professionals, hauling companies etc. who actually do cross between the UK and mainland Europe regularly). Certain medicines will be in very short supply. There's an endless list of things from mildly inconvenient to downright terrible (if you depend on one of the medicines to live, for example).

The economy is already tipping into recession. Leaving the UK's biggest trade union will make this worse. If the Tories somehow cling to power, expect more cuts. Maybe the NHS will be privatised to save money. The poor and disabled will be shat on even more than they already are.

The wealthy will as always find a way to do just fine. Tax evasion will continue and probably grow (exemption from new EU tax directives and policies).

More companies than have already left will move to the mainland.

More EU citizens will go back home (whether forcibly due to the draconian rules or out of choice). Priti Patel will smile sweetly as the talent exodus decimates entire sectors.

People will try and get on with their lives, but for many it will definitely get harder.

I hate Brexit.

I am friends with an MP who is on the Remain side, and I've quizzed him off and on for some time. He tells me there will be some movement in the currency exchange markets, on the London stock exchange, but by and large life will just keep moving along. Manufacturing agreements with Asia and the Americas are in place, so no disruption to most of that. He thinks some food staples might be in short supply but companies have been preparing for Brexit for a year now, so disruption should be minimal. He believes the future of Britain is within the Union, but he personally believes all talk of disruption and shortages is just politics.

Personally, I believe him. I think a lot of politics is filled with doomsday scenarios and fear mongering, but we're talking about a major, modern economy. Brexit reminds me of Y2K. Lots of talk, lots of worry, but nothing really happened.

More than likely the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Scotland will have another referendum if we leave with no deal, and odds are they will vote yes this time. A hard border in Ireland will more than likely result in a vote for re-unification, and depending on how bad it goes for NI in a no deal scenario it's not unlikely for that to happen too.

In the short term we'll probably struggle with logistical issues, getting freight through the ports, shutting down motorways around Dover, etc. There will be more pain for people travelling to the EU, especially for those that do business there. Nothing apocalyptic there but definitely stuff we've not had to think about for decades. We'll end up falling in line with their regulation and things anyway I expect so I wouldn't expect to see any major trade deals with the US any time soon.

Politically even if the U.K. somehow stays together the Conservative party is going to end up bearing the blame for this. There is no real pathway to this being successful for those people that are hurting the most, they were lied to and even if they get what they think they want, they are going to pay the cost of that. How that shakes out is anyones guess, I wouldn't be surprised to see the country swing further to the right with the help of the tabloid press. Especially when we have to increase immigration from non-eu countries to bolster the people that leave, just within the NHS this is going to be required. Couple that with stagnant growth and a continuation of austerity there is going to be some real anger within the working class.

Essentially we're probably looking at another lost decade at least, a descent into darker and darker politics and finally when we're back to the original position when we entered the EU as the sick man of Europe we'll probably vote to rejoin.

I'm concerned, but mainly for the mid-term future than immediate starvation and riots.

Borders and ports will cope - only after a period of obviously not having nearly enough customs and other staff for borders and checks. Temporarily difficult then. Particularly as we have a government that doesn't want to spend on any necessary service.

Good Friday agreement is my biggest short term concern. That requires a lack of borders, and Brexit seems to require the impossible in NI. Mid-term I see reunification. Short term could get ugly if there's border posts, and just one incident...

Mid term, it's destroyed UK's international reputation, it's boosted independence thoughts across the nation, and our politicians of all colours are clearly no longer fit for purpose. You tell me where that takes us. I see a further decline of science and business as more goes to the EU than here. Why would a project choose to locate in a post-Brexit UK with no EU agreement?

I think the UK will have to give up N.I. to Ireland at some point to avoid an all out war. EU is good at keeping peace the last few decades, but Europe has always been at war internally before that so it looks like it will be back to BAU

Think Mad Max on mobility scooters. I've stock piled food. The Irish border is already an issue, I was there recently when two bombs were found. I doubt it will be pretty.

It would require a lot of agreed-upon things to continue as agreed rather than end upon the overarching agreement (i.e. membership of the Union) coming to an end. This is largely what Brexit-positive people seem to think would happen in the case of a no-deal, i.e. "nothing much would change" because to rock the boat would be too much.

What I fear is the UK government (and the press that support it) continuing its policy of doing very little and blaming everything on the EU. For example:

1. UK leaves without a deal, leaving an open EU border between Ireland and NI. 2. UK refuses to do anything to enforce this border or stop the movement of goods and people across it. 3. Ireland / the EU needs to protect its borders so they put up fences and vehicle checkpoints. Perhaps even with help from other EU countries' security forces. 4. UK right wing press runs stories full of angry language about the 'invasion'

I fear we'll see this process repeated every time there's a shortage of anything - it will all be the EU's fault, and entering into any transitional agreements with the EU (if they are gracious enough to grant us any) will be 'surrender' or 'capitulation'.

This is a worst case scenario, but I fear we are heading for serious civil unrest and violence

Interest rate cuts by the BoE, the pound weakens, Asian foreign investment - Japan and China would love to build high speed rail for an international market. Companies like Huawei will offer turn key solutions to government infrastructure projects. You can hedge by buying Swiss francs, Aussie dollars or Japanese Yen. Or purchasing an investment property or a plot of land for future development, immigration from Asia will see a rising demand in housing, cheap accommodation. Long term the UK becomes a type of Hong Kong for wealthy Europeans - tax haven and pivot point of entry into the European market. More jobs will be created in tech, manufacturing and construction.

I am quite close to a couple of people actually working on Brexit ... and while of course they won't tell me any specifics, the message that I'm getting from the body language, eye-rolls and exasperated sighs is ... pretty bleak.

The Belfast Agreement / Good Friday Agreement will be trashed and we'll lose the tenuous peace we had in NI.

Watch Raab talking about the Good Friday Agreement: https://twitter.com/deirdreheenan/status/1175701674767388672

And here is the actual document that he hasn't read: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agree...

Renewed conflict in Northern Ireland, breaking the Good Friday agreement, leading to open war between the EU and the UK, with Scotland seceding during the chaos and joining the EU.

Or, renewed conflict in Northern Ireland and huge tensions between the EU and UK leads to the Queen taking control since the UK obviously doesn't know how to govern itself any more. Honestly, this seems like the best outcome; they'd be better off with royal rule than what they've chosen.

It will be bad, although with the complete inability of UK leaders to get anything done or make decisions much damage has already been done.

Isn't "remain" option possible?

Pardon my kidnapping the thread, but I don't think HN would appreciate splitting the discussion.

In NI:

- Irish border posts are setup

- Lots of confusion at the border

- Small groups of young men throw rocks at the border guards

- Escalations occur

- People die

- New era of the troubles ushered in

- 10 years later and thousands killed / displaced

Meanwhile in scotland

- Scottish referendum tabled

- Overwhelming support to leave the UK and rejoin the EU

- Referendum passes (just)

- UK dissolves into England, Wales and NI

NHS still underfunded.

nothing special

We know exactly what happens because it’s actually defined in treaties, specifically WTO rules will apply. The UK is a full member of WTO independently of the EU. It’s important to remember that “the deal” isn’t a thing that was mentioned on the pamphlet that went through everyone’s door before the referendum. That just said that the government will implement whatever the people vote for (which was to leave). It’s entirely something the necessity of which was made up after the fact, as a face-saving measure by a political class that badly misjudged the national mood.

It is obvious to anyone who has ever negotiated for anything, ever, that no deal is better than a bad deal. Ask yourself why Remainers are so keen to take that option off the table and keep asking for extensions indefinitely.