Are we heading for another recession?

The most plausible theory I've seen floated is that the US Midwest is likely already in a recession. US Manufacturing index weakens AGAIN, which means the midwest isn't making as much stuff as it used to. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgro...

So a local recession is likely already happening. The question is whether or not this spreads to be a full US-scale recession.

I do believe that the technology sector is in the end-stages of a bubble, but whether or not that causes a drop in GDP is another question. The WeWork IPO-failure, as well as Peloton IPO drop, has shown that "tech" companies are not as valuable as VCs thought they were. (WeWork isn't $40 Billion as Softbank expected but is instead ~$10 Billion).

So now what? Well remember: 2008 was a "Great Recession", and 2001 was a recession but mainly isolated to the tech-sector. A recession like `91 (~8% unemployment) is probably what people should be thinking about from history.

There's probably no chance of another 2008-like "Great Recession". But the US economic cycle cannot boom forever, and we've been booming for nearly 11 years now. Some kind of recession is inevitable.

This is a really complicated question. Some things to consider:

1) Capitalism needs ever-increasing consumption to sustain itself. Imagine a metric: amount of stuff consumed by a person on average. If that number doesn't increase every year, you get a recession. Keep an eye on consumer spending and M1 (the velocity of money). (btw, this is why the long term view of capitalism is grim, it ultimately cannot be sustained. but who knows maybe we learn how to harvest metals out of meteors and we all have our own private jets in 100 years. that would be great for capitalism)

2) Most recessions are triggered by a catalyst. The most recent one was caused by financial instruments that over-leveraged real-estate. It won't be that this time, but there are others at play now. Student debt defaults could rise if unemployment dips, causing another lending crunch, but likely only debt holders would be hit hard (localized recession). I am also keeping my eye on the overnight repo market - banks are holding less cash and it's causing some interesting new problems at the fed, but unclear how that could ripple to the economy. Certainly the trade war could push up the cost of goods as well and cause consumer spending to dip. A lot of economists have been searching for a catalyst scenario but there doesn't seem to be one.

3) Slower growth could be the new-norm. There is a large chance financial assets won't see the kind of appreciation over our lifetime that our parents saw. It is possible that 1970's era stagflation could return.

4) Liquidity trap, maybe? The aforementioned fiasco that unfolded this past week in the repo market would signal a potential risk.

Are we headed to a recession? Hard to say.

I still haven't figured out how the elimination of redundant jobs will be rectified by companies trying to sell products/services. If your customers have no money (or credit), then you have no more customers.

UK has had a quarter of negative growth. Hard to imagine Brexit is going to boost that. So, yes, recession here almost certain.

Of course. Economic expansions don't last forever and the US has been expanding for 10+ years now, the longest expansion in our nation's history, so it's fair to say we're overdue for a recession.

Yes but ALL estimates are bunk. Whoever can predict business cycles keeps it more secret than the NSA inner sanctum.